The Canadian housing market is showing a mixed picture as we head into early 2026, with a noticeable dip in the overall trend of new home construction.
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the six-month trend for housing starts in January 2026 experienced a 3.5% decrease, settling at 254,794 units. This trend measure is a sophisticated way of looking at housing starts over a longer period, smoothing out monthly fluctuations by averaging the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) over six months across all of Canada.
But here's where it gets interesting: When we look at actual housing starts in centers with 10,000 or more residents, there was a slight year-over-year increase of 1%. In January 2026, 16,088 units were started, up from 15,957 units in January 2025. This suggests that while the overall pace might be slowing, construction in larger urban areas is holding steady or even growing slightly.
And this is the part most people miss: The total monthly SAAR for housing starts across all of Canada actually saw a significant 15% drop in January 2026 compared to December 2025. This means the raw number of new homes being built in January was considerably lower than the month before, contributing to that declining six-month trend.
This data paints a picture of a market that's perhaps rebalancing. Are these numbers a sign of a cooling market, or simply a seasonal adjustment? What are your thoughts on what this means for the future of housing in Canada? Let me know in the comments below!
