As the Iran war exposes global dependence on fossil fuels, the biggest emitters are reaping the rewards. Oil prices are soaring, reaching about $110 a barrel, with some forecasts predicting it could reach $150. Food prices are rising, and the World Food Programme USA warns of global food insecurity. Industries face shortages and soaring costs, while households are being urged to cut energy use. The US-Israel war on Iran, the third global shock in six years, highlights our reliance on fossil fuels. Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, warns that fossil fuel dependency undermines national security and sovereignty. The Guardian has examined the 10 countries most responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, categorizing them as either 'electrostates' or 'petrostates'. The former are committed to a low-carbon future, while the latter are wedded to fossil fuels. The Iran war has intensified the divide, showing which emitters will emerge stronger. Global trends favor renewables, with low-carbon sources surpassing coal in electricity generation last year. Investment in clean energy now outstrips fossil fuel investment by two to one. However, the war in Iran and Ukraine has benefited petrostates, boosting their fossil fuel revenues. China, the world's biggest emitter, is leading the charge for an electrified future, with emissions flat or falling for nearly two years. Clean energy investments topped $1 trillion, and China added 360GW of new solar and wind capacity in 2024 and 430GW in 2025. India, the world's most populous nation and fourth biggest economy, has committed to generating 60% of electricity from low-carbon sources by 2035 and cutting emissions per unit of GDP by 47%. The US, the world's biggest oil producer, has seen emissions fall until recently, with the green economy booming under the Inflation Reduction Act. However, Trump's administration is dismantling climate protection, boosting oil and gas and coal. Russia, the third largest oil and gas producer, is reaping extra profits from the war in Iran. Putin shows no interest in climate action, and Russia's infrastructure leaks vast methane. Durwood Zaelke suggests targeting methane reduction to slow near-term warming. Jayati Ghosh emphasizes the need for government intervention in the green transition, citing China's success. The war's outcome will shape our global future, with the 10 biggest emitters holding the world's future in their hands. A far bigger crisis looms, and the economic impact of climate breakdown will be severe if we reach 2C above pre-industrial levels.
